WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR US?

 https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/01/30/what-does-the-future-hold-for-us/

If astronauts were taught nothing about gravity and atmosphere, and nothing about how to cope with variations in both, they would not survive a day in space. Much like students schooled in a system that stresses learning by memorizing dates and formulae, one that pays no attention to the skills crucial to life and the adaptability required in different situations. Such a system was never a good thing, but its lack of wisdom is more and more obvious with time. Now when it has been observed that very shortly man is going to make himself redundant, that his role in life will be taken over by an intelligence which was created by man himself and perfected to the extent that anything man can do Artificial Intelligence (AI) can do better, a population that has no idea of how to deal with this change has little chance of surviving.

The process is already under way. One sees it in medicine where chips inserted into the body, monitor and control its various responses. Self-driving cars are in the market although for now the driver’s role remains in making important decisions. Completely self-driving vehicles are still about a decade away, but ten years is not much at all, and for those who are already too far behind it is as bad as having no time at all to catch up.

When the Industrial Revolution arrived, it carried its initiators with it, England, the USA, Germany and so on. Other countries such as India (and Pakistan), te Middle Eastern countries and Africa were left far behind. For now these countries continue to hold some value because they are able to provide what factories and their expensive workers belonging to those Industrialised countries cannot: cheap labour.

But now that AI can lift, clean, plant, click and fix stuff, something that was the province of that cheap labour, and it can fly, diagnose and operate as well…what now? Where do the countries providing cheap labour go?

On an individual level no life is without a purpose, but how far can a society sustain itself if it consists mostly of people who cannot read, or even if they can, they read without much understanding. Will our segment of the world still have any validity when everything is fully handed over to AI?

It is true that most people in every country are individuals without a great deal of education and a limited understanding. Much of this can be laid at the door of personal economics, of the need to provide in the face of the odds that life is so good at throwing at us. The situation around us today in the midst of covid-19 is a tragic but apt example. What must be done about this, so that the future holds something better for us than annihilation?

There are two things that must be done.

The first is to overhaul the system of education so that the stress is on understanding rather than rote learning, on a system that focuses on problem solving rather than producing a list of facts. How far can a person go knowing the exact date of the fourth Anglo-Mysore war without analysing the forces involved on either side? There is little point also in knowing the exact equation for the special theory of relativity without understanding what mass, gravity and force are, what they can be applied to and why the knowledge is important to us.

Yuval Noah Harari, an intellectual and a historian, says that education needs to teach us to reinvent ourselves. In a world that with every change threatens our professions, our means of livelihood, in such a world requires people to be ever more ingenious in finding a different path when the one they are on is taken up by someone else.

The second thing that must be done, and this is as important as the education, is to bring down the uncontrolled rate of population growth in our country. Education might improve but to make it accessible to such a great number of persons is perhaps an impossible task, and the numbers grow each day. What started out as a country of 33,700,000 (West Pakistan) in 1947 became in the year 2020 a country with a mind-boggling population of more than 220,892,340 persons.

Both these measures will provide us with at least a fighting chance of survival, although to survive with any measure of peace will require a lot more than this.

At present there is no sign that anything, anything at all is being done to address either of these matters. The system provides only a small number of persons with real knowledge. And to control the population is taken as an insult to religion. The only activity on the national scene appears to be political, relating to who stays in power and who is kicked out.

QUESTIONING CAPITAL PUNISHMENT

 https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/01/23/questioning-capital-punishment/

The Constitution of Pakistan allows the death penalty, and hanging is the method of execution permitted. A moratorium on executions was briefly put into place in 2008. As a result, none took place for a couple of years. That moratorium was lifted in 2014 following the attack on the school in Peshawar, and several executions followed.

If there has to be a single, powerful argument against the death penalty, it is that a judge can never be unbiased. It is not human nature to be so. And when a human’s life hangs in the balance there is really little more to be said.

It is wrong to simply state as it is often done that Islam allows the death punishment, and therefore it is. There is more to it than that. What is said in Surah Al An’am verse 6:151 is ‘take not life which Allah has made sacred, except by way of justice and law.’ A simple look around the world will reveal that such a thing as justice exists in only very few places, and certainly not in Pakistan. So whereas the law may allow the death penalty, the absence of justice negates that permission.

In Pakistan, seven executions were carried out in 2014, 326 in 2015, 87 in 2016, 65 in 2017, and 14 in 2018, the same number in 2019. There appear to be no figures yet for 2020. Pakistan, it is obvious, has a strong record of capital punishment.

Despite what is said in support of this particular punishment, there appears to be no decrease in crime. According to a 2017 report, Punjab, which is the source of more than 80 percent of these punishments, ‘witnessed only a 9.7% drop in murder rate in 2015 – 16, whereas Sind a 25% drop in murder during the same period,’ even though Sindh performed 18 executions to Punjab’s 382 in the same period.

It must be obvious to even its supporters that the death penalty is hardly the way to bring about change for the better in society, particularly when gross disorganization is added to ignoring the law and ignorance of the law, and sidelining justice. A mindboggling example from 2016 is the case of two brothers who had been on death row for 11 years in Bahawalpur. It was only when they were acquitted by the Supreme Court that it was discovered that the two men had been executed the year before.

Execution in Pakistan is a way of making room in overcrowded cells. It is also used as a political tool. Had Gen. Zia ul Haq not been in power at the time, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto might well have not been hanged. Seeing that facts do not change, this can only indicate that not commuting Bhutto’s controversial sentence was a personal decision and a political one.

Why was that decision in the hands of a military general in any case? A man who brought and kept himself in power, and was the source of many dubious decisions and constitutional changes in the country he set himself up to rule.

It is worth questioning, on that note, if the power to pardon or not should at all be in the hands of the leader of a country, as it is in Pakistan, and in the USA.

As Donald Trump’s tenure came to an end, his last acts were a grisly chain of executions, and a long list of pardons. The people pardoned were mostly his allies, persons convicted of fraud and the such, including his son-in-law’s father Charles Kushner, a disbarred attorney ‘convicted of illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion, and witness tampering.’

There were 13 executions in all in the USA in Donald Trump’s tenure. The first set took place right after anti-racism protests that rocked the country. All these men were white.

The last five executions took place just before Biden’s inauguration and seemed to be the result of a fit of anger after losing the election. These people were executed despite a custom whereby the outgoing president generally stops executions, handing over the decision instead to his successor. What’s more, all of these persons in the last set were black. They included Brandon Bernard, who at 40 years of age had been in prison since he was 18, when he was  convicted of robbing and shooting a couple.

Why was the power to pardon or execute ever in the hands of a man other than a judge trained in the job? And in the case of Donald Trump, a man who was known for his unbalanced decisions and narcissism.

Why was anything also in the hands of General Zia, a man who as a soldier was trained to kill, who personally had no respect for the constitution of the country and was focused on making changes that were nothing but the personal whims of yet another unbalanced mind?

There are times when constitutions need reexamination. Such as the Second Amendment of the Pakistan Constitution. And those sections of the Constitution that grant the power of life and death to people who must not have it, who have no qualifications to possess it, although whether anyone at all should have it is as much a question to be discussed.

THE FAILED COUP

 https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/01/09/the-failed-coup

• What the attempted coup in the US can teach us

What just happened in the USA when supporters of Donald Trump attacked the Capitol  was important, not just because it seems to have been a turning point in the elections but for many other reasons, one of the most obvious and striking being how closely these events and their reasons resemble what happens in Pakistan. It is worth noting them.

It is interesting that whether it is involved or not– the USA and the West get blamed for most things in Pakistan, most particularly by the right wingers. Blamed for the suspicion towards vaccines (with reason that one, thank you CIA, mostly responsible for the suspicion), for all ills of modern culture, for every religious remark that is blown up into blasphemy.

The refusal to accept the new leadership, the insistence that elections were tampered with, not only was this entirely familiar to us in this country, but it is pertinent to note the reason why Donald Trump’s tactics did not succeed: the fact that most people in the USA do believe in its basic institutions, and are not pleased when the Constitution is threatened. They don’t mind organizing coups in other countries but are rather touchy about coups taking place in their own. But that is a whole different subject.

That belief in the Constitution and the threat to the Constitution was probably the biggest reason Trump now finds himself eating crow . The other reason is that much as Mr Trump would have wanted it, the army refused to get involved in his plans. In the US, the military is generally left out of such matters, and the military itself was keen to keep it that way. Interesting, eh? And not as familiar as the rest.

The heavily armed crowd that raided the Capitol came as no surprise. Americans have always been fond of guns, the country’s gun culture is not just something you see in Western movies. They own guns, several guns per household, and from the look of things they always will. That and the fact that the National Rifle Association (NRA) has been a huge backer of Donald Trump and his election campaigns. That made it inevitable that Trump would play puppet to the NRA’s string. Very early on in his tenure as president he got rid of a restriction that made it illegal for anyone with mental issues to buy a gun. He made it possible for those evading arrest to buy guns by changing the definition of ‘fugitive from justice.’ Businesses making and selling guns, and shooting ranges are now designated ‘essential businesses.’ Characteristically, he promised to do so but took no action against the gun lobby and gun safety. He also made it much easier to export guns to other countries. The world needed that like a dose of cyanide. Yet how could he go against the NRA’s wishes when the Association is said to have donated $30 million for the 2016 elections, and it is now being calculated just how much they paid for this one that he lost?

We need to check who pays for our leaders’ electioneering.

Naturally Trump’s supporters, those who battered their way into the Capitol possessed guns and they used them, bats, fists and whatever came their way to break into the building. Guns were drawn in the building, a woman was shot and later died, a long gun and nine firearms were recovered by police, and several people were arrested under suspicion of carrying illegal guns. The entire Capitol episode was orchestrated. That is obvious. People travelled to DC from areas far away, from Florida, Texas.

None of this is new for us. It is as common for persons to be armed in Pakistan, thieves breaking into homes, drive by shooters and other thugs. Just as the build up of guns, their sale and possession particularly during the pandemic was ignored in the USA, it is ignored in Pakistan, as is the fact of who buys them.

Still, the fact that people bought guns, more guns than usual was not just with the aim of attacking the Capitol. It is not just with the aim of aggression that people arm themselves.  It is also frustration and injustice that make people think in terms of self-defence, and there is no lack of frustration and injustice in Pakistan, particularly now with the pandemic upon us. With businesses closing down and their livelihoods collapsing about people’s ears, what can they do but strong-arm their way to support in the absence of support from those responsible for providing it?

With the leadership of this country, those in power and those who aspire to it both concentrating solely on that golden throne, on abusing each other and holding rallies– even in the midst of a pandemic when it is wiser not to congregate, the people of this country have little choice but to take what they can. The example set for them by their political leaders is hardly a peaceful, rational one.

While leaders blame each other,  people all over the world do what they think is most in their interests, and while democracy is for the people by the people, people left to their own devices have never known what is best for themselves. They need a leadership that cares for them.

That leadership must care regardless of the colour of their skin. Trump’s following is predominantly white. Clearly it will be a while before racism is stamped out in that country, and the previous government’s legacy of racism, misogyny, will linger until someone else manages to remove the legitimacy it was granted.

Are all people granted respect in this country, be they women, poor, Shia, Sunni, Hazara or Christian. Is it possible for anyone to claim this in Pakistan? Have not racism and misogyny been granted a similar legitimacy in Pakistan, with so many Hazara people killed and the Prime Minister of the country refusing to pay them the respect that is their due? The latest while writing this column is that the PM is accusing the Hazara of blackmailing him by asking for his presence.

At least in the USA they have their systems which have been upheld in the final analysis. They have a basic reverence for their Constitution. They have an army that refuses to get involved. And now they have a new government.

It is doubtful that that new government will be any better for the world than its predecessors were, but that again is a different matter. We in Pakistan need to look to ourselves. To build our own strengths, to respect our own ability to do what is right. To make progress a reality and not just something that is worn like a fake medal by our leaders.

HOW QUARANTINE CAME ABOUT

 https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/01/03/how-quarantine-came-about/

2020 has dinned certain things into us that will not be easily forgotten. One of these is the word ‘quarantine’ with the concept of isolating the infected. The origins of this word and concept lie in one of the many Black Plague outbreaks that swept the world something like 40 times in 300 years between the 14th and 17th centuries, killing all together perhaps half of the world’s population. Nobody knew then what caused this disease, why it got some people and missed others and why it spread the way it did, but they had a vague notion it had something to do with exposure to an already sick person. So during the epidemic that swept through Europe in the 14th century, people infected with the plague were strictly isolated in their homes, and in the Venetian port of Ragusa, sailors who arrived from other countries were isolated on their ships first for 30 days, and later for ‘quarantino’ days, the Italian word for 40 from which English got the word quarantine, and the world the concept of isolation. The word quarantine now applies to isolation to prevent infection, however long that takes. This approach worked. By the 15th century, isolating the sick during a plague had become law in England.

Most of the year 2020, with Covid 19 upon us, we have been in much the same position without any weapon against the disease. Only now that vaccines have been found,does there seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel.

It is worth considering how the world survived the previous pandemics, what did people do to fight against the Black Deaths, cholera and the smallpox before vaccination for those diseases appeared?

The only thing that appears to have saved people then was quarantine.

It was only later in the 18th century that smallpox became the first disease to be pushed back by another means, with Edward Jenner’s vaccine against smallpox. Smallpox was announced to be completely eradicated by 1980.

John Snow identified cholera with contaminated drinking water in the 19th century, bringing about a great reduction in that disease.

Quarantine, vaccinations, sanitation. The efficacy of these three things might have gone a long way towards eradicating certain terrible diseases, but anti-vaxxers and other sceptics remain, people who do not believe in the efficacy of ‘social distancing’, and sanitation, as well as people who believe that God will in some mysterious way rid us of our troubles without us lifting a finger to help ourselves.

To provide a clean and safe water supply is a government’s job. Failure to do so, as in Pakistan, is the failure of that government.

For all these things although sceptics exist very much among the educated as well, the people most likely not to believe in them are the uneducated or the less educated, those whose lives have not led them to accept the existence of what they cannot see (other than God whose concept has been with them all their lives); those whose education, if they possess, some does not teach them to rationalize, conceptualise and understand anything beyond the small box that contains the sum of their worldly experience. This is not by any means their fault. That they were not educated is the fault of those entrusted with doing so, once again the government. That even if they have the rudiments of education if they cannot conceptualise it is the fault of the kind of rote, unimaginative education they receive. That their horizons are so limited is their lot in life, which could change with more education or greater opportunities, neither of which are brought their way.

Once the vaccine comes to Pakistan there will almost definitely be cases like the one that just took place in the USA where a pharmacist deliberately removed more than 500 vaccines from is cooling facility. Experts have said, mercifully, that there will be no adverse effects other than ineffectiveness of the vaccine.

In Pakistan, the same government that cares much more about re-election and spends all its energy wrangling, that cares nothing about its people’s education, or about providing clean water, must take care that this does not happen here. Other than anything else, Pakistan cannot afford such wastage.

People must be shown, adults as well as children in school, animations about what a virus is, how it attacks and spreads, and films about the absolute necessity of isolation and quarantine. Messages on phones, leaflets and other vague methods are as good as nothing, they will cut no ice. People need to understand exactly why it is dangerous these days to attend weddings and funerals, why it is important to boil their drinking water, and why it is crucial to get the vaccination when it arrives in Pakistan.

The stress must be on teaching children who do after learn to believe in an unseen divinity. Why not then an unseen biological reality, which can be seen with a microscope?

People need to know how vaccines work, to see on film (they cannot read most of the time) what smallpox was, how it was eradicated, how the Black Death ended. Actual footage, actual stories, actual pictures. This is as important as mathematics, as crucial as religious studies, as empowering as chemistry, physics and biology.

Teachers need imagination to pass on this knowledge. The government needs the will. Is it within the power of this country to find stores of imagination and will?